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​​POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures are mixed amid decrease in crude stocks

HOUSTON, October 12, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Thursday, after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks and a build in gasoline.

As of 10:22 am CDT, November NYMEX WTI was up $0.35/bbl at $51.27/bbl; November gasoline fell 2.65 cpg to 158.27 cpg; and November diesel increased 2.00 cpg to 178.49 cpg.

Finished gasoline and distillate inventories (diesel and heating oil) are still lower than last year; gasoline seems to be rebuilding, but distillates (diesel and heating oil) look clearly problematic heading into winter.

Heating oil (essentially the same product as diesel) is approximated 20% of the US distillate market, with 80% going to diesel fuel.

Crude oil exports, at 1.270 million b/d, were lower but still very strong; domestic production is also very high.

The refining complex shows that things are getting back to normal, which also includes healthy exports.

Crude inventories fall 2.8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending October 6 showed a 2.8 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 462.2 million barrels (“near the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.480 million b/d, off 81,000 b/d for the week, but 1.030 million b/d higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 403,000 b/d to 7.6 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.4 million b/d, a decrease of 6.6% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 860,000 million b/d, down from 862,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 763,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 85,000 b/d, up from 72,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 95,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand up 1.3%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.2 million b/d, up 1.3% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 2.5 million barrels to at 221.4 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range”), 4.1 million barrels below last year.

Gasoline demand was 9.4 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.3% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 134.0 million barrels (in the lower half of the average range”), down 1.5 million barrels, compared with last week, and 23.0 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, up 2.1 % compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 900,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 78.9 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 900,000 barrels on the week, but lower by 25.0 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.2 million b/d, up 229,000 b/d, 89.2% of capacity, higher by 1.1 percentage points. In PADD III (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 2.9 percentage points to 88.5%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.491 million b/d, up 12,000 b/d for the week, still a bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.4 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.071 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 4.964 millio b/d.

Crude exports fall dramatically

Exports of crude oil were 1.270 million b/d, down from 1.984 million b/d last week; one year ago the figure was 481,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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